Submitted by Dr George Harpur
Congratulations! Because of, or in spite of, the things we have all been doing this particular area of the country has managed to avoid a significant outbreak of covid 19. While we don’t know what or who exactly is responsible, please don’t stop now.
We need to continue the attention to physical distancing, the use of masks when out in public, the frequent handwashing and continue to keep our hands away from our face unless immediately after cleansing.
The side effects of some of the measures imposed, particularly the limitation on business, commerce and travel, are increasingly wreaking havoc on people’s ability to return to a productive lifestyle. The psychological impact of the social distancing and restricted movement grows daily more devastating particularly for those alone or with pre-existing trouble and the difficulty with access and delays for needed treatment is impairing our ability to address proper care for any disorder. A slow relaxation of restrictions is underway.
Before starting such a trial it would be nice if we had some idea which of the things we’ve been doing really mattered. Unfortunately we have no very certain idea and we may one day discover that it was the clean air we breathe and the wide-open spaces we have here that really made this difference but for now the simple measures outlined above, while a nuisance, take little effort and may prove to be the critical elements.
The current drive to increase testing changes nothing. There is a high rate of false negatives so a test is no guarantee that you can abandon precautions and even if negative at the time you are tested the next person you encounter may be an asymptomatic or preclinical distributor so maintain your precautions. The testing is really of benefit mainly to the epidemiologists in determining the way this virus is being spread. It will also provide more reliable information about the virulence and is not the ticket to abandoning personal protective behaviour.
Controlled experiments are one of the ways that scientists use to try and understand the various factors controlling a situation or reaction. In order to conduct such an experiment one has to have some idea of what the factors are that may influence the result of the experiment and develop a way to control each of these factors adjusting each one in turn while keeping the others stable to test its effect. This process allows one to determine what these changes do and learn which factors you need to adjust to produce the outcome desired. If the series of experiments involved fails to produce any useful change then you know that the factors that matter were not on your list so back to the drawing board.
At the present time we are in the midst of a huge experiment in which scientists all over the world are searching vigorously to uncover the critical factors we need to modify to bring about effective control of the spread of covid 19. The project is obviously incredibly challenging because the number of factors suspected of wielding an influence is huge and the ability to control or adjust many of them difficult if not impossible. Results may be a long time coming unless serendipity intervenes.
It certainly feels great to have even a little bit more freedom but one of the big problems with the experiment underway is the two-week delay before the results will be in. If a week goes by with nothing dramatic happening it will be very easy for people to begin to relax their guard, become more casual with the simple measures outlined above and let their guard down. By the end of the following week the results may demonstrate a need to reimpose strict measures. Patience is always in short supply and this situation is not likely to prove an exception. The media continue to contribute to both the rising general anxiety and confusion with an endless repetitive stream of sensationalized reports including the continued reporting of new case numbers in isolation from any explanation of the role that expanded testing may be playing. If these figures were given as a percentage of positives per thousand tests they might be meaningful and less misleading.
Social media and local gossip abound in the rumours of imminent cure or control most of it untrue or premature. There are still no solid control measures that can be relied upon but those outlined above are the ones most often on the scene when control has been better.
It’s difficult to understand why there has been so much vacillation on the subject of masks. When the Czech Republic imposed mandatory mask wearing in public it became one of the best protected countries of the European Union but with fewer restrictions than most of the other countries. They encouraged outdoor activity, something we certainly have the space for, and there are a number of reports that support significantly lower risk in outdoor locations. It’s noteworthy that the required face coverings in Czechoslovakia are not N95 or even surgical masks but merely a face covering, homemade or otherwise.
Surely it’s time to end the debate and simply recommend a face covering when out in public along with your social distancing. Just remember, as pointed out in this quip passed on by Dr. Thomas, “If you hate the mask, you’ll love the ventilator.”
