John’s Column: 99.26% of MNBP Voters Didn’t Fill Out STA Survey

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By John Francis 

The Agenda for the Municipality of Northern Bruce Peninsula’s January 27 Council Meeting (which was delayed to February 3 due to weather) includes a Report entitled: “Short-term Accommodation Licensing Program Public Comment Analysis”. Based on public feedback after the 2024 season, municipal staff recommended eight potential program changes to the Short-term Accommodation Licensing Program. Those proposed changes were posted to the “LetsTalkNPB” website late last year, with a comment period open from November 26 to December 31.

Most of the proposed regulations would qualify as “housekeeping”, dealing with things like zoning, waiting lists and reinstating suspended licenses. Only two of the proposed regulations were the tiniest bit controversial: 

• Include requirement for Property Manager/Responsible Person contact information to be posted at the end of STA laneways, enabling direct communication for addressing disturbances or issues.

• Remove Class C licences from Program.

The Report details the results from that public consultation. 72 people filled out a survey; there were also 81 comments posted, by a total of 49 of the participants. There were 821 total page views.

Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics

Mark Twain popularized that saying, although he attributed it to Benjamin Disraeli (perhaps incorrectly).

So — what is a page view? That means somebody went to that web page. Does 821 page views mean that 821 people read the report and the survey? Well, no. It doesn’t.

Consider this newspaper. This issue has 24 pages. Our verified circulation is somewhere over 3,000 copies. Let’s assume that the recipients of those papers leaf through the paper, page by page — even if they don’t read anything — that’s 3,000 X 24 = 72,000 page views. But most households have more than one member, so say half of those papers get leafed through twice. That brings us up to 108,000 page views. That’s without anybody actually reading anything. If those papers spend several days on the kitchen table and then two weeks in the bathroom, with content being read as time permits… You could argue that each issue of our paper probably gets at least 150,000 unique page views. That’s a statistic. Is it true? Probably. Is it meaningful? Let’s go with “no”.

So what does 821 internet page views mean? Well, I’m pretty sure that not everybody who opened the page read the contents. And if the commenters went back to the page repeatedly to monitor the responses to their comments, each of those returns would register as a new page view. ‘Nuff said.

The number we can be sure of is that 72 people filled out surveys and 49 people made comments. 

There were 9,682 eligible voters during our last municipal election. 72 participants represents a lot less than 1% of those voters. On those survey responses, all but two of the proposed regulations received broad support. But the proposed regulations detailed above were both opposed by 42% of respondents. This makes me suspicious.

There are 5,600 households in MNBP. Less than 400 of those are STAs. That’s around 7%. When 42% of responders object to additional regulations on STAs, does that make your spidey sense tingle? Could it be that STA owners were over-represented in the survey responses? 

Pollsters do a trick where they try to adjust their poll results to compensate for over-represented and under-represented demographic groups. That does not appear to have been done in this case, nor should it have been — that would be “manipulating the data”. But I think those 42% numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt.

I did a little survey of my own: I sent an email to a few dozen friends, asking if they are affected by STAs and if they knew about the LetsTalkNBP consultation. I got responses from 21 people, all residents, all landowners, varying in age between fifty-something and eighty-something.

81% said they are affected adversely by STAs. 81% favour heavier regulation of STAs, including elimination of Class C STAs in Residential zones. 71% did not know about the LetsTalkNBP consultation process, and only two of us considered filling out the questionnaire.

 So how would you get a larger, unbiased sample? Full disclosure — we’ve had a similar problem at the Press. It’s hard to get people to fill out a questionnaire. In our case, we get the heaviest response from our most dedicated readers. In the municipality’s case, they appear to have gotten the heaviest response from STA owners.

The Heart of our Communities

At the Hellyer’s re-opening celebration last spring, a friend who has spent most of her 90-odd years on the peninsula told me that the community was getting its heart back. She must have seen skepticism in my face, because she kept on. “What else is there?,” she asked. “The Post Office? The Liquor Store?”

She gave me a few seconds to digest that, then continued: “Where do you get a chance to chat with the other people in the community? It’s here,” she said, nodding towards the store, “and at Peacock’s in Tobermory. Nothing else comes close. They are the heart of our communities.”

So how would you get a large, unbiased sample? Go straight to the heart. Set up tables outside Peacock’s and Hellyer’s on a busy Saturday.